Effects of Age, Time Period, and Birth Cohort on the Prevalence of Diabetes and Obesity in Korean Men

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Abstract
OBJECTIVE—We examined changes in the prevalence of diabetes, obesity, and overweight in 412,881 Korean men in birth cohorts from 1933 to 1972 over 8 years from 1992 to 2000 and separately analyzed the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—The study included male employees of Korean government organizations and schools who were between 20 and 59 years of age in 1992. Diabetes was diagnosed on the basis of self-reports in 1992 or fasting blood glucose levels (≥126 mg/ml, 7.0 mmol/l). The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort. RESULTS—In Korean male birth cohorts from 1933 to 1972, the age-specific prevalence of diabetes, obesity, and overweight in men aged 28–59 years increased annually by 0.41% (3.03 to 6.29%), 0.18% (0.70 to 2.16%), and 1.49% (23.48 to 35.41%), respectively, from 1992 to 2000. The relative change in diabetes was largest among the younger cohorts (>400% increase over 8 years) and corresponded to the change in obesity. Apart from the contribution of age, clear cohort and period effects were evident for diabetes, although the magnitude of the effect was slightly less than that for obesity. CONCLUSIONS—Prevention of diabetes through the control of obesity, particularly in young men, clearly needs to be emphasized.