El Niño–Southern Oscillation Impacts on Winter Vegetable Production in Florida*

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Abstract
Florida’s mild winters allow the state to play a vital role in supplying fresh vegetables for U.S. consumers. Producers also benefit from premium prices when low temperatures prevent production in most of the country. This study characterizes the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Florida vegetable industry using statistical analysis of the response of historical crop (yield, prices, production, and value) and weather variables (freeze hazard, temperatures, rainfall, and solar radiation) to ENSO phase and its interaction with location and time of year. Annual mean yields showed little evidence of response to ENSO phase and its interaction with location. ENSO phase and season interacted to influence quarterly yields, prices, production, and value. Yields (tomato, bell pepper, sweet corn, and snap bean) were lower and prices (bell pepper and snap bean) were higher in El Niño than in neutral or La Niña winters. Production and value of tomatoes were higher in La Niña winters. The yield response can be explained by increased rainfall, reduced daily maximum temperatures, and reduced solar radiation in El Niño winters. Yield and production of winter vegetables appeared to be less responsive to ENSO phase after 1980; for tomato and bell pepper, this may be due to improvements in production technology that mitigate problems associated with excess rainfall. Winter yield and price responses to El Niño events have important implications for both producers and consumers of winter vegetables, and suggest opportunities for further research.