Simulation and Predictability in a Coupled TOGA Model

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Abstract
A model of the tropical ocean and global atmosphere is described. It consists of an aqua-planet form of version one of the NCAR Community Climate Model coupled to a primitive equation model for the upper tropical ocean in a rectangular basin. A 24-year simulation is described that has almost no climate drift, a good simulation of the mean temperature gradient across the ocean, but smaller than observed annual and interannual variability. The coupled model is analyzed to see where it occurs on the schematic bifurcation diagram of Neelin. In years 9–16 of the simulation there is a dominant oscillation with a period of two years. The spatial pattern of this oscillation shows up clearly in the first empirical orthogonal function calculated from monthly averages of sea surface temperature anomalies. A series of 19 model-twin predictability experiments were carried out with the initial perturbation being a very small change in the ocean temperature field. The correlation coefficient of monthly sea surface temperature anomalies from these model-twin experiments decreases rapidly over the first 6 months and after that, more slowly, showing that there is some predictability out to a year. The predictability times are marginally increased if only the coefficient of the first empirical orthogonal function of monthly averaged sea surface temperature anomalies or NIN03 sea surface temperature is predicted. There is some evidence to indicate that it is easier to predict the onset of a model warm event than to predict the onset of a model cold event. More detailed analysis of the first model-twin experiment shows that the initial divergence in the integrations is a change at day 6 in the incoming solar radiation due to a change in the atmospheric model clouds. The dominant early change in sea surface temperature occurs by this change in radiative heat flux. If the cloud feedback is set to zero, then the first changes are delayed to day 12 and occur in the evaporative and sensible heat fluxes and in the atmospheric wind stress. In this case the dominant early change to sea surface temperature is by advection due to the changed wind stress.

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