The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America

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Abstract
Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critically important for public health responses and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here, we elucidate when, where and how the earliest sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission networks became established in Europe and North America. Our results suggest that rapid early interventions successfully prevented early introductions of the virus into Germany and the US from taking hold. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and to Washington State founded the earliest sustained European and North America transmission networks. Our analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of public health measures in preventing onward transmission and show that intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 from becoming established.
Funding Information
  • National Institutes of Health (K01AI110181)
  • National Institutes of Health (AI135992)
  • National Institutes of Health (AI136056)
  • National Institutes of Health (AI135995)
  • National Institutes of Health (T15LM011271)
  • David and Lucile Packard Foundation (N/A)
  • Canadian Institutes of Health Research Coronavirus Rapid Response Programme (440371)
  • Genome Canada for Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Programme 28PHY (N/A)
  • Wellcome (206298/Z/17/Z)
  • H2020 European Research Council (725422-ReservoirDOCS)
  • H2020 European Research Council (874850)
  • Research Foundation -- Flanders (G066215N)
  • Research Foundation -- Flanders (G0D5117N)
  • Research Foundation -- Flanders (G0B9317N)
  • Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/M010996/1)
  • Multinational Influenza Seasonal Mortality Study (N/A)