An examination of some uncertainties associated with estimates of sedimentation rates and tectonic subsidence

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Abstract
The sensitivity of backstripping calculations (sedimentation rates and tectonic subsidence) to uncertainties regarding porosity reduction is examined. Models simulating compaction and externally sourced cementation are considered to provide first‐order bounds on the thickness and mass changes for individual sedimentary units. These bounds can be used to estimate uncertainties in sedimentation rate and subsidence estimates. With these models, the timing of cement development can be regarded as unimportant for backstripping calculations. Calculations have been made to evaluate the effect on backstripping calculations of uncertainties in sediment porosity, density and the mechanisms of porosity reduction. Departures from theoretically predicted subsidence curves of the order of 100 m or so have been variously interpreted as the result of fluctuations or uncertainties in sea‐level, palaeobathymetry, tectonic stress, sedimentation rates and stratigraphic age. Two examples are given to illustrate that such departures may occur in some subsidence curves merely as a result of imprecise assumptions regarding porosity reduction. Consideration should be given to the uncertainties in models for porosity reduction when using subsidence curves to infer second order tectonic influence during basin evolution.