An elicitation method for multiple linear regression models
- 1 January 1991
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Wiley in Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
- Vol. 4 (1) , 17-31
- https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.3960040103
Abstract
This paper describes a method of quantifying subjective opinion about a normal linear regression model. Opinion about the regression coefficients and experimental error is elicited and modeled by a multivariate probability distribution (a Bayesian conjugate prior distribution). The distribution model is richly parameterized and various assessment tasks are used to estimate its parameters. These tasks include the revision of opinion in the light of hypothetical data, the assessment of credible intervals, and a task commonly performed in cue‐weighting experiments. A new assessment task is also introduced. In addition, implementation of the method in an interactive computer program is described and the method is illustrated with a practical example.Keywords
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