Driving missing data at next-to-leading order

The prediction of backgrounds to new-physics signals in topologies with large missing transverse energy and jets is important to new-physics searches at the LHC. Following a CMS study, we investigate theoretical issues in using measurements of $\gamma +2$-jet production to predict the irreducible background to searches for missing energy plus two jets that originates from $Z+2$-jet production where the $Z$ boson decays to neutrinos. We compute ratios of $\gamma +2$-jet to $Z+2$-jet production cross sections and kinematic distributions at next-to-leading order in ${\alpha }_s$, as well as using a parton shower matched to leading-order matrix elements. The former ratios rely on the first next-to-leading-order calculation of $\gamma +2$-jet production at a hadron collider. We find that the ratios obtained in the two approximations are quite similar, making $\gamma +2$-jet production a theoretically reliable estimator for the missing energy plus two jets background. We employ a Frixione-style photon isolation, but we also show that for isolated prompt-photon production at high transverse momentum the difference between this criterion and the standard-cone isolation used by CMS is small.