Codon equilibrium II: Its use in estimating silent-substitution rates

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Abstract
We study the equilibrium in the use of synonymous codons by eukaryotic organisms and find five equations involving substitution rates that we believe embody the important implications of equilibrium for the process of silent substitution. We then combine these five equations with additional criteria to determine sets of substitution rates applicable to eukaryotic organisms. One method employs the equilibrium equations and a principle of maximum entropy to find the most uniform set of rates consistent with equilibrium. In a second method we combine the equilibrium equations with data on the man-mouse divergence to determine that set of rates that is most neutral yet consistent with both types of data (i.e., equilibrium and divergence data). Simulations show this second method to be quite reliable in spite of significant saturation in the substitution process. We find that when divergence data are included in the calculation of rates, even though these rates are chosen to be as neutral as possible, the strength of selection inferred from the nonuniformity of the rates is approximately doubled. Both sets of rates are applied to estimate the human-mouse divergence time based on several independent subsets of the divergence data consisting of the quartet, C- or T-ending duet, and A- or G-ending duet codon sets. Both rate sets produce patterns of divergence times that are shortest for the quartet data, intermediate for the CT-ending duets, and longest for the AG-ending duets. This indicates that rates of transitions in the duet-codon sets are significantly higher than those in the quartet-codon sets; this effect is especially marked for A→G, the rate of which in duets must be about double that in quartets.