Settling the UGDP Controversy

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Abstract
A long-awaited assessment of the validity of the indictment of oral hypoglycemic agents by the University Group Diabetes Program (UGDP)1is appearing in this issue. Because the controversy stirred up by the report centered around the biostatistical aspects of this and other long-term trials of the oral agents, the Director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) contracted with the prestigious Biometric Society to appoint a committee of distinguished biostatisticians to review the pertinent studies in detail. This has now been accomplished in a most thorough manner. The overall judgment of the experts is that the shortcomings of the UGDP study are not sufficient to invalidate the results, and these are not contradicted by the other studies. The probability that oral hypoglycemic agents cause premature deaths from cardiovascular disease remains valid. Statistically valid studies do not prove anything. They merely give the practitioner a probability estimate on which to

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