Impact of climatic warming on the New Zealand growing season

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Abstract
Trace gases in the atmosphere, such as methane and fluorocarbons, are increasing. Climate models predict an eventual rise in surface temperatures. The impact on agriculture depends on the magnitude of warming. Increases of 1, 2, and 5°C in mean annual temperatures are considered. A temperature increase of 1 °C would open a large area of land at higher elevations for pastoralism, and allow the introduction of many warm temperate crops into the South Island. A 2°C warming would extend the range of citrus and subtropical crops into the northern South Island. The results show the sensitivity of New Zealand horticultural, arable and pastoral farming activities to small changes in mean annual temperatures.