A numbers game (or The return of regional multipliers)

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Abstract
Steele D. B. (1972) A numbers game (or The return of regional multipliers), Reg. Studies 6, 115–130. The calculation of regional multipliers is a prior stage in the development of a generalized regional interaction model suitable for policy formulation. The problem must be tackled from both sides simultaneously, hypothesizing the important variables and testing them for their size and sensitivity. This exercise, with its greater number of “leakage” variables illustrates the importance of the “feedback” variables, which are still insufficiently developed. The feedback variables used here, and found to be important, are imports and distributed profits. This suggests that more attention needs to be devoted to classes of investment endogenous to the model (undistributed profits and consumer induced investment). The hypothesized inverse relationship of regional income and unemployment benefit is more complex and uncertain than at first thought. The size of region and the balance of trade are still the most sensitive factors in the “feedback” multiplier. Calculations were made for 1964 and 1967. The trade data for 1967, though much more complete, depended on a small sample for roads goods. Nevertheless, the differences in regional balance of trade over the period accounted for interesting shifts in the regional multipliers.
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