Modeling of Phytoplankton in Saginaw Bay: I. Calibration Phase

Abstract
A deterministic, spatially segmented, multi‐class phytoplankton model is calibrated to an extensive set of field data acquired on Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron, during 1974 and 1975. Significant differences between observed mean values from the field data, and mean values computed by the model, are determined using a simple Student's t test. For the final calibration results, there are no significant differences between model output and field data for 86% of the sampling cruises in the principal spatial segments. Seasonal mean values between model output and field data are also compared because the hydrological and productivity cycles in the bay are characterized by distinct seasonal patterns. Discrepancies occur for water column total phosphorus concentrations because they appear to be strongly influenced by wind‐induced sediment resuspension. The resuspension mechanism in the calibrated model accounts for 36 and 68%, respectively, of the computed spring and fall average total phosphorus concentrations.