Dynamic Model Comparing the Bionomics of Two Isolated Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations: Sensitivity Analysis

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Abstract
A simulation model described (Eisenberg et al. 1994a) was used to compare the population dynamics of Culex tarsalis Coquillett in the Coachella and southern portion of the San Joaquin Valleys of California. Model outputs were classified as a pass if they met criteria that defined typical seasonal abundance patterns established by CO2 and New Jersey light trap data. The sensitivity of this classification to the model parameters was assessed by running multiple simulations for each valley site. Parameter sets associated with a pass were first analyzed separately for each valley and then compared. The two study sites were distinguished by the distributional characteristics of two parameters associated with temperature dependency. One of these parameters described the temperature dependence of larval mortality and the other the temperature dependence of adult egg development. We hypothesize that these isolated Cx. tarsalis populations evolved separately to maximize survival in their respective temperature regimes by adapting to different optimal larval survival temperatures and egg-development rates.

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