On the Dynamics of Droughts in Northeast Brazil: Observations, Theory and Numerical Experiments with a General Circulation Model

Abstract
It is proposed that a possible mechanism for the occurrence of severe droughts over northeast Brazil is the establishment of a thermally direct local circulation which has its ascending branch at about 10°N and its descending branch over northeast Brazil and the adjoining oceanic region. The driving for this anomalous circulation is provided by warming due to enhanced moist convection associated with warmer sea surface temperature anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic, and cooling associated with colder sea surface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Atlantic. The combined effects of thermally forced subsidence and reduced evaporation and moisture flux convergence produces severe drought conditions over northeast Brazil. We have examined the monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Atlantic and rainfall anomalies over two selected stations (Fortaleza, 3°46′S 38°31′W and Quixeramobim, 5°12′S 39°18′W) for 25 years (1948–72). It is found that the most sever... Abstract It is proposed that a possible mechanism for the occurrence of severe droughts over northeast Brazil is the establishment of a thermally direct local circulation which has its ascending branch at about 10°N and its descending branch over northeast Brazil and the adjoining oceanic region. The driving for this anomalous circulation is provided by warming due to enhanced moist convection associated with warmer sea surface temperature anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic, and cooling associated with colder sea surface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Atlantic. The combined effects of thermally forced subsidence and reduced evaporation and moisture flux convergence produces severe drought conditions over northeast Brazil. We have examined the monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Atlantic and rainfall anomalies over two selected stations (Fortaleza, 3°46′S 38°31′W and Quixeramobim, 5°12′S 39°18′W) for 25 years (1948–72). It is found that the most sever...