FURTHER EPIDEMIOLOGICAL EVALUATION OF A MALARIA MODEL

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  • 1 January 1978
    • journal article
    • research article
    • Vol. 56  (4) , 565-571
Abstract
The malaria model previously fitted to 1 yr of baseline data from the Garki District in the Sudan savanna of northern Nigeria was tested against data collected in the same area over a period of 3 yr, including 1 1/2 yr during which the insides of houses in certain villages were sprayed with propoxur. It was also tested against data collected in Kisumu, Kenya, also over a period of 3 yr, including 20 mo. during which the insides of houses in part of the area were sprayed with fenitrothion. The test consisted in using the vectorial capacity, calculated from the entomological [Anopheles mosquitoes] observations made in the above places and periods, as input in the Garki model while keeping the other parameters as fitted to the Garki baseline data, and in comparing the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia [human] as estimated by the model to that actually observed. There was relatively good agreement and the model is considered epidemiologically satisfactory and fit for use in planning malaria control operations.