The Location of US Manufacturing: Some Empirical Evidence on Recent Geographical Shifts

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Abstract
In this paper, current theories and hypotheses of industrial location are tested, using a cross-sectional regression analysis of employment change in total manufacturing, and in five high-technology sectors in each of 264 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, for the period 1977–84. Agglomeration forces and market opportunities, unions, wages, climate, and university research parks are best used to explain employment growth. Employment losses are related to declining markets and the downsizing of establishments. Agglomeration forces which influence the growth of total manufacturing are metropolitan-size related, in contrast to industry-specific externalities for individual high-technology sectors. The results indicate that growth rates decline with increasing industry concentration and metropolitan size. Policy variables based on taxes and public expenditures are not significant. The interrelationships between social and economic characteristics in selected metropolitan areas are explored. The effects of these relationships on the determinants of total manufacturing growth and decline are identified.