The developmental dynamics of terrorist organizations

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  • 26 July 2011
Abstract
The authors identify robust patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations, and examine their relationship to organizational size and experience. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist attacks worldwide from 1968-2008 and a simulation model of organizational growth, the authors show that the typical frequency of violent events by an organization accelerates according to a power-law function with increasing size and experience; in contrast, these events' severity follows Richardson's Law--a power-law distribution--independent of such covariates. These patterns are explained by event production rates that are fundamentally constrained by labor availability. Thus larger, more experienced organizations are more deadly because they attack more frequently, not because their attacks are more deadly. The implications of these robust patterns are discussed with respect to counter-terrorism policies, the underlying sociopolitical processes that generate terrorist attacks and their relationship with other forms of violent conflict, such as civil wars.

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