A Genetic Mixture Analysis for use with Incomplete Source Population Data

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Abstract
While anadromous salmonids reproduce in fresh water, most harvests occur at sea. Effective genetic management requires knowledge of the stock (source population) composition of the harvest. This is accomplished with genetic stock identification (GSI), which compares the genotypes of harvested fish with those of freshwater stocks, assuming that all candidate stocks are identified and that their allele frequencies are known exactly. We develop methods that: (1) allow for sampling error in allele frequencies of candidate stocks, and (2) evaluate the possibility of unsampled contributing stocks. Composition analysis for chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) collected for the Bonneville Dam egg bank program in 1980 and 1981 shows that about 10% of both harvests were from the Deschutes River and about 90% from the Hanford Reach area. Contributions from lower Columbia and Snake River stocks or from unidentified sources were limited.

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