Subjective probabilities inferred from estimates and bets.

Abstract
EXAMINED THE SIMILARITY AMONG VERIDICAL EVENT PROBABILITIES, SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES INFERRED FROM SS' ESTIMATES OF THE EVENT PROBABILITIES, AND SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES INFERRED FROM CHOICES AMONG BETS INVOLVING THE SAME EVENTS. IN 1 CONDITION, SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES WERE BASED ON 2 LEVELS (HIGH AND LOW) OF EXPERIENCE WITH THE RELATIVE FREQUENCIES OF THE EVENT OCCURRENCES. THE SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE 2 KINDS OF INFERRED SUBJECTIVE AND VERIDICAL PROBABILITIES INCREASED WITH EXPERIENCE AND, AS EXPECTED IF BOTH ESTIMATES AND BETS WERE BASED ON THE SAME UNDERLYING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES, THE 2 SETS OF INFERRED SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES WERE EQUALLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER (R = .93) AT BOTH EXPERIENCE LEVELS. IN A 2ND CONDITION, EVENT PROBABILITIES WERE DISPLAYED AND SS USED THEM TO MAKE CHOICES AMONG BETS; THE INFERRED SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES WERE HIGHLY CORRELATED WITH THE DISPLAYED VALUES (R = .96). IT WAS POSSIBLE TO ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE RESPONSE ERROR VARIANCE BY INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES IN TEST ANXIETY. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved)