Frequency and Duration Methods for Power System Reliability Calculations: II - Demand Model and Capacity Reserve Model

Abstract
This paper is a continuation of the work started in [1] and is aimed at incorporating a model of the power system load with the generation system model developed previously. Combination of this load and the generation model permits computation of the availability, frequency of occurrence, and mean duration of generation reserve, or margin states. The results of this work are illustrated by continuation of a simple numerical example begun in Part I. The most widely applied of the previously developed techniques for assessing generation system reliability, the loss-of-load and loss-of-capacity methods, assume fixed outage or load duration intervals. The present model, on the other hand, uses an exponential distribution of durations. The reserve margin states developed using the exponential distributions contain data giving both the availability of each margin state and the expected frequency of recurrence. Previous methods yield only the availability of the reserve margin states, or else availability and frequency data for generating capacity states, not considering the load. The method presented and illustrated may be extended t o consider the calculation of operating reliability or the inclusion of the effects of a simple transmission system.

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