Empirical studies of the journey to work in urban Canada

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Abstract
The 1971 census journey-to-work data supplemented by road-network data for 30 Canadian census areas are analyzed. The data are used to examine the degree to which the commonly used trip-generation and trip-distribution techniques might be used to synthesize journey-to-work patterns and the extent to which the parameters may be generalized across these urban areas.The extent to which intercensus-tract variations in labour force are explained by several separate measures of census-tract residential activity are analyzed by regression analysis. Dwelling-unit composition is isolated as the most effective predictor of census-tract labour force. These multiple regression equations explain from 96–99% of the intercensus-tract variations in labour force and the partial regression coefficients are consistent between census areas.Production-constrained and production-attraction-constrained forms of the gravity model are calibrated. Although conventional goodness-of-fit statistics suggest that these gravity models have a high degree of explanatory power, a detailed examination of the trip-interchange residuals shows that model performances are less than adequate. It is concluded that significant modifications to the traditional gravity trip-distribution models are required if interzonal travel demands are to be estimated with confidence.

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