Long-Term Trends in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Conterminous United States and Canada

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Abstract
This paper describes the results of an analysis of trends in short duration (1–7 days) extreme precipitation events that have a recurrence interval of 1 yr or longer for stations in the United States and Canada. This definition of extreme precipitation was chosen because such events are highly correlated with hydrologic flooding in some U.S. regions. The dominant temporal characteristic of a national event composite index is significant low-frequency variability. There were lengthy periods of a below-average number of events in the 1930s and 1950s and an above-average number of events in the early 1940s, early 1980s, and 1990s. Regional variations often differ substantially from the national composite. A simple linear analysis indicates that the overall trend covering the period 1931–96 has been upward at a highly statistically significant rate over the southwest United States and in a broad region from the central Great Plains across the middle Mississippi River and southern Great Lakes basins. ... Abstract This paper describes the results of an analysis of trends in short duration (1–7 days) extreme precipitation events that have a recurrence interval of 1 yr or longer for stations in the United States and Canada. This definition of extreme precipitation was chosen because such events are highly correlated with hydrologic flooding in some U.S. regions. The dominant temporal characteristic of a national event composite index is significant low-frequency variability. There were lengthy periods of a below-average number of events in the 1930s and 1950s and an above-average number of events in the early 1940s, early 1980s, and 1990s. Regional variations often differ substantially from the national composite. A simple linear analysis indicates that the overall trend covering the period 1931–96 has been upward at a highly statistically significant rate over the southwest United States and in a broad region from the central Great Plains across the middle Mississippi River and southern Great Lakes basins. ...

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