Trade, Defence and the Richardson Theory of Arms Races

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Abstract
The trade patterns for the seven nations USA, USSR, UK, China, Western Germany, Poland and France are examined using a directional trade ratio, and 10 polarization properties of this system of nations are suggested. The degree of polarization of each of the twenty-one two-nation subsystems comprising the whole system is calculated using the findings from the trade analysis. An n-nation interaction model is then constructed which uses the idea of involvement to describe the degree of polarization of a subsystem in the whole system. This model is combined with the Richardson submissiveness model and is applied over the period 1952-62. It is found to be consistent with the facts of defence expenditures, and to give a higher correlation than a model which does not take differential degrees of polarization into account. It is then suggested that a nation may alter its involvement in the cold war system in such a way that its behaviour becomes independent of the cold war system. Disarmament by that nation might then be more feasible, as it would not be subject to cold war con siderations. It is further suggested that the defence budgets of nations could be planned for different periods of time depending on the phase of the arms race system. This would increase the damping in the system. Conversely it is suggested that supplementary estimates in times of increasing tension should be avoided.

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