IsB1=Kan appropriate assumption when applying an observation error production-model estimator to catch-effort data?
- 1 June 1990
- journal article
- Published by National Inquiry Services Center (NISC) in South African Journal of Marine Science
- Vol. 9 (1) , 249-259
- https://doi.org/10.2989/025776190784378925
Abstract
A Monte-Carlo simulation approach is used to investigate the relative robustness of the results of the Butterworth–Andrew (B 1 = K and B 1 estimated) dynamic production-model observation-error estimators to different "true" values of the ratio of initial biomass B 1 to unexploited equilibrium biomass K. The simulations use an underlying operating model typical of that appropriate for stocks of Cape hake off southern Africa. The B 1 = K variant of the estimator results in lower estimated expected discrepancies for a number of management quantities over a wide range of the value of the "true" ratio. In addition, it is less likely to provide severe overestimates of the f 0.1 total allowable catch (TAC). Not all management quantities are equally sensitive to the value of the "true" ratio. In particular, f 0.1) TACs can be severely overestimated, although the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) is relatively well determined over a wide range of values of the ratio. It is therefore recommended that harvesting strategies which do not permit TACs to be set in excess of the estimated MSY be preferred.Keywords
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