Validation of a Demographic Prognostic Index in Schizophrenia

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Abstract
A simple index of prognosis, based on demographic variables, was constructed and cross-validated. The validation sample consisted of 158 consecutive first admissions with the diagnosis of schizophrenia. Another group of 94 similar patients constituted the cross-validation sample. The criterion to be predicted was discharge within one year of admission. Of the eight variables studied, only Age on Admission, Marital Status, and Socioeconomic Status were found to be related to the criterion to a significant degree and were included in the weighted index. Using one cutting point 70% correct predictions were obtained for the total sample. When two extreme scores were used as cutting points 41% of the total sample) one obtained 86% of correct predictions. These results were replicated when the index was cross-validated. Some practical and theoretical implications of these findings were discussed.

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