SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL DEDUCTIONS IN SEROEPIDEMIOLOGY OF VIRAL-INFECTIONS .1. HERPESVIRUS GROUP (HERPESVIRUS-HOMINIS, VARICELLA-ZOSTER VIRUS, CYTOMEGALOVIRUS, EPSTEIN-BARR-VIRUS)

  • 1 January 1977
    • journal article
    • research article
    • Vol. 238  (2) , 149-164
Abstract
Large samples of nonselected persons in southern West Germany were investigated for the prevalence of serum antibodies to the human herpesviruses HSV, VZV, CMV and EBV [herpes simplex, varicella-zoster cytomegalo- and Epstein-Barr viruses, respectively]. According to catalytic models, which compare the infection spread to simple chemical reactions of molecules, a mathematical approximation of the serum surveys was performed. Through a new deduction of the exponential function a simple way was found to estimate the annual percent attack rates in susceptible, seronegative people. While it was possible to represent the prevalence of serum antibodies to VZV by a continuous curve, a biphasic curve to the antibody prevalence rates in the epidemiology of the other herpesviruses proved to be more adequate, indicating changes in hormonal balance and social behavior. The use of the epidemiologic parameters k and r for the characterization of the test sensitivity was examined for CMV. By evaluation of the mean antibody titers to CMV, HSV and EBV thoughout different age groups, information about the reactivation of the herpesvirus diseases could be obtained.

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