Economic Determinants of Theft: Some Empirical Results

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Abstract
A simultaneous equations model in which crime is a function of the probabillty of conviction, penalty, gross yield, and socioeconomic variables is presented and tested for the crimes of robbery and burglary. The cross-section data used from 31 states for 1970 support the hypotheses that crime rates fall when the severity and certainty of punishment are increased and the gross gain from the crime is decreased. The results reported are consistent with those of previous investigators. However, the current study uses homeowners insurance claims as a proxy for the gross gain from robberies and burglaries. While imperfect, this measure is more direct than those used by most previous investigators. As a result, the present study provides more direct support for the hypothesis that thieves respond to the amount available for stealing.

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