Predicting the effect of prevention of ischaemic heart disease

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Abstract
Background: Priority setting in public health policy must be based on information on the effectiveness of alternative preventive and therapeutic interventions. The purpose of this study is to predict the effect on mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in Denmark of reduced exposure to the risk factors hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, cigarette smoking, and physical inactivity. Methods: The simulation model, "Prevent'', was used. The input data for the model were population size, death rates, prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, and relative risks. Scenarios of the impact of reduced exposure to risk factors on mortality from IHD were studied, including the health benefi ts of successful implementation of some of the targets in the Danish Government programme for public health and health promotion, 1999-2008. Results: The greatest reduction in mortality from IHD would be achieved by interventions against cigarette smoking. If the proportion of cigarette smokers could be reduced by one-third within 10 years, the number of deaths due to IHD among people under 65 would be 10% lower for men and 15% lower for women. If the proportion of heavy smokers or the proportion of people with hypertension were reduced by 25%, the rate of mortality from IHD would be 5% lower for men and 6-7% lower for women. Reducing the number of cases of severe hypercholesterolaemia by 25% would lower the IHD mortality rate before age 65 by 3% for men and 6% for women after 15 years, similar to the effect of easy exercise for at least 4 hours a week among physically inactive people.