Surveillance of Infectious Disease by Serologic Methods. I. Asian Influenza, 1957-1964

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Abstract
A seroepidemiological influenza surveillance program was undertaken in New York City from August, 1957 to July, 1964. A2 influenza virus was associated with 7 definitive increases in pneumonia -influenza mortality during this period. The study revealed a consistent serologic response following recurrent out-breaks of Asian influenza. Initially the antibody incidence in all age groups rose, following which only the youngest age group (15-19 years) retained its antibody level, while those of the older age groups declined. With subsequent reappearance of A2 virus, the antibody incidence once again rose to a new peak, followed by another decline for all age groups, except for a retention of antibody by the population aged 20-29 years. Thus, the repeated increase and decline of antibody in the older age groups served as an indicator for the appearance and spread of the A2 virus in the community. With repeated exposure to virus, the A2 antibody curves for all age groups has remained at a high level for more than one and a half years since the 7th A2 outbreak in New York City in Nov., 1962- Jan., 1963. The emergence of a new influenza virus variant as the probable cause of the next epidemic is predicted.