Renewable Energy Futures: Targets, Scenarios, and Pathways
- 1 November 2007
- journal article
- Published by Annual Reviews in Annual Review of Environment and Resources
- Vol. 32 (1) , 205-239
- https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.32.080106.133554
Abstract
Scenarios for the future of renewable energy through 2050 are reviewed to explore how much renewable energy is considered possible or desirable and to inform policymaking. Existing policy targets for 2010 and 2020 are also reviewed for comparison. Common indicators are shares of primary energy, electricity, heat, and transport fuels from renewables. Global, Europe-wide, and country-specific scenarios show 10% to 50% shares of primary energy from renewables by 2050. By 2020, many targets and scenarios show 20% to 35% share of electricity from renewables, increasing to the range 50% to 80% by 2050 under the highest scenarios. Carbon-constrained scenarios for stabilization of emissions or atmospheric concentration depict trade-offs between renewables, nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) from coal, most with high energy efficiency. Scenario outcomes differ depending on degree of future policy action, fuel prices, carbon prices, technology cost reductions, and aggregate energy demand, with reso...Keywords
This publication has 41 references indexed in Scilit:
- Forecasts, scenarios, visions, backcasts and roadmaps to the hydrogen economy: A review of the hydrogen futures literatureEnergy Policy, 2006
- Clean energy scenarios for AustraliaEnergy Policy, 2006
- Energy system aspects of hydrogen as an alternative fuel in transportEnergy Policy, 2006
- Scenario for growth of electricity in IndiaEnergy Policy, 2005
- Long-term security of energy supply and climate changeEnergy Policy, 2005
- The promise of clean energyEnergy Policy, 2005
- Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in CaliforniaEnergy Policy, 2004
- The power sector in China and India: greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and scenarios for 1990–2020Energy Policy, 2004
- Scenarios for a robust policy mix: the final report of the German study commission on sustainable energy supplyEnergy Policy, 2003
- Scenarios for a clean energy futureEnergy Policy, 2001