Population Estimation From Floor Area: a Restudy of "Naroll's Constant"

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Abstract
This paper is a cross-cultural study of dwelling floor area and population size, which uses Naroll (1962) as a starting point and guide. Naroll's research has been used extensively by archaeologists for population prediction from dwelling floor area. At the outset, Naroll's empirical results are called into question because of data inaccuracy. The restudy begins with a review of the critical literature. Questions of variable measurement that were not elaborated by Naroll are explored: What is dwelling floor area, what is a dwelling, and what is a typical measure of dwelling floor area for a culture? Three distributional models are used as guides to correlational analysis. A gourd-shaped model is preferred, but cannot be given unequivocal support. Never theless, one way to derive a worldwide population estimator from the restudy data is to use the predictor of 6 m 2/person. This predictor is supported by convergent validity from two other samples. A "basic needs" theory for dwelling floor area is advanced. Little support, however, is found for the two basic needs that have been postulated- the need to avoid the deleterious effects of crowding and the need for shelter from severe climate.

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