Black-White inequalities in mortality and life expectancy, 1933–1999: Implications for Healthy People 2010

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Abstract
G SYNOPSIS Objectives. Optimistic predictions for the Healthy People 2010 goals of eliminat- ing racial/ethnic disparities in health have been made based on absolute im- provements in life expectancy and mortality. This study sought to determine whether there is evidence of relative improvement (a more valid measure of inequality) in life expectancy and mortality, and whether such improvement, if demonstrated, predicts future success in eliminating disparities. Methods. Historical data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the Census Bureau were used to predict future trends in relative mortality and life expectancy, employing an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Excess mortality and time lags in mortality and life expectancy for blacks relative to whites were also estimated. Results. Based on data for 1945 to 1999, forecasts for relative black:white age- adjusted, all-cause mortality and white:black life expectancy at birth showed trends toward increasing disparities. From 1979, when the Healthy People initiative began, to 1998, the black:white ratio of age-adjusted, gender-specific mortality increased for all but one of nine causes of death that accounted for 83.4% of all US mortality in 1998. From 1980 to 1998, average numbers of a