Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part I. model construction and validation

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Abstract
Global climate change will have direct impacts on human health, including increased mortality due to heat stress and heat waves. An empirical-statistical model for heat stress is constructed for the city of Lisbon using the June–August months of the observational period 1980–1998. The model uses the regression of an aggregate dose-response relationship between maximum temperature and excess heat-related deaths, based on the difference between observed and expected deaths. The model is validated by correlation and residual analysis. The mean annual heat-related mortality for the period 1980–1998 was between 5.4 and 6 deaths per 100,000 depending on the method used to calculate expected deaths. Both validation methods show that the model has a moderate to high accuracy in modelling heat-related deaths compared to the observed record.

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