Maps assessing the potential for the development of technogenic thermokarst in the north of Western Siberia

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Abstract
On the basis of available information on snow depths, atmospheric temperature, vegetation cover, types of sediment and ice content of sediments to a depth of 10 m the authors have developed maps of northern areas of Western Siberia which illustrate the probability of provocation of technogenic thermokarst as a result of a) increase in snow depth and b) removal of the vegetation cover. The maps allow one to estimate the permissible increase in snow depth in the case of a) removal and b) preservation of the vegetation cover, the probability of the development of thermokarst with removal of the vegetation cover and possible settlement of the ground if the sediments thaw. In general terms four zones can be delimited in terms of potential for thermokarst development with removal of the vegetation cover. In the northernmost zone (Zone I) removal of vegetation will not lead to thermokarst development in any type of natural microregion, even in areas of deep snow accumulation. In Zone II, farther south, removal of the vegetation will produce thermokarst only in areas of high snow accumulation. In Zone III, farther south again, removal of the vegetation will provoke thermokarst in areas of moderate snow accumulation but not in areas with low snow depths. And finally, in Zone IV, the most southerly of all, removal of the vegetation will produce thermokarst in all areas of permafrost occurrence (in this area, almost exclusively in peat bogs).

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