Using Initial Condition and Model Physics Perturbations in Short-Range Ensemble Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems

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Abstract
Two separate numerical model ensembles are created by using model configurations with different model physical process parameterization schemes and identical initial conditions, and by using different model initial conditions from a Monte Carlo approach and the identical model configuration. Simulations from these two ensembles are investigated for two 48-h periods during which large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems develop. These two periods are chosen because, in some respects, they span the range of convective forecast problems routinely handled by operational forecasters. Calculations of the root-mean-square error, equitable threat score, and ranked probability score from both ensembles indicate that the model physics ensemble is more skillful than the initial-condition ensemble when the large-scale forcing for upward motion is weak. When the large-scale forcing for upward motion is strong, the initial-condition ensemble is more skillful than the model physics ensemble. This result is... Abstract Two separate numerical model ensembles are created by using model configurations with different model physical process parameterization schemes and identical initial conditions, and by using different model initial conditions from a Monte Carlo approach and the identical model configuration. Simulations from these two ensembles are investigated for two 48-h periods during which large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems develop. These two periods are chosen because, in some respects, they span the range of convective forecast problems routinely handled by operational forecasters. Calculations of the root-mean-square error, equitable threat score, and ranked probability score from both ensembles indicate that the model physics ensemble is more skillful than the initial-condition ensemble when the large-scale forcing for upward motion is weak. When the large-scale forcing for upward motion is strong, the initial-condition ensemble is more skillful than the model physics ensemble. This result is...

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