Early response to therapy and survival in multiple myeloma

Abstract
Whether the response to chemotherapy is a prognosticator in multiple myeloma (MM) is still not known. Therefore, the relationship between survival and the rate of monoclonal protein (M‐protein) decrement during the first cycles of therapy was prospectively assessed in 262 patients with newly diagnosed MM that were included in a phase III trial (HOVON‐16). M‐proteins were collected monthly during melphalan–prednisone therapy (MP: melphalan 0·25 mg/kg, prednisone 1·0 mg/kg orally for 5 d every 4 weeks). Patients with light chain disease (n = 18), immunoglobulin M (IgM)‐MM (n = 1) and no immunotyping (n = 1) were excluded. Of the 242 patients studied, 75% had IgG M‐protein and 25% IgA; MM stages: I: 1%, II: 35% and III: 64%. The median M‐protein decrease after the first cycle of MP was 21% for IgG and 27% for IgA, and declined to < 5% after four cycles. An obvious survival advantage was seen for patients who had an M‐protein decrease of at least 30% after the first MP cycle, which became significant when an M‐protein decrease of 40% or more was reached. As established prognostic parameters (Salmon & Durie stage, serum creatinine, and haemoglobin) also remained prognostically significant, we concluded that early response to MP predicts for survival in MM.