The Finley Affair: A Signal Event in the History of Forecast Verification

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Abstract
In 1884 a paper by J.P. Finley appeared in the American Meteorological Journal describing the results of an experimental tornado forecasting program in the central and eastern United States. Finley's paper reported “percentages of verifications” exceeding 95%, where this index of performance was defined as the percentage of correct tornado/no-tornado forecasts. Within six months, three papers had appeared that identified deficiencies in Finley's method of verification and/or proposed alternative measures of forecasting performance in the context of this 2×2 verification problem. During the period from 1885 to 1893, several other authors in the United States and Europe, in most cases stimulated either by Finley's paper or by the three early responses, made noteworthy contributions to methods-oriented and practices-oriented discussions of issues related to forecast verification in general and verification of tornado forecasts in particular. The burst of verification-related activities during the pe... Abstract In 1884 a paper by J.P. Finley appeared in the American Meteorological Journal describing the results of an experimental tornado forecasting program in the central and eastern United States. Finley's paper reported “percentages of verifications” exceeding 95%, where this index of performance was defined as the percentage of correct tornado/no-tornado forecasts. Within six months, three papers had appeared that identified deficiencies in Finley's method of verification and/or proposed alternative measures of forecasting performance in the context of this 2×2 verification problem. During the period from 1885 to 1893, several other authors in the United States and Europe, in most cases stimulated either by Finley's paper or by the three early responses, made noteworthy contributions to methods-oriented and practices-oriented discussions of issues related to forecast verification in general and verification of tornado forecasts in particular. The burst of verification-related activities during the pe...

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