Analytic Uncertainty and International Cooperation: Theory and Application to International Economic Policy Coordination

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Abstract
Recently, the problem of uncertainty has received intensified attention from international relations theorists. However, there are three gaps in the literature so far. First, the existing studies have concentrated on strategic uncertainty to the neglect of other kinds of uncertainty. Second, application has so far been limited to international security issues. Third, empirical corroboration has been limited. This article tries to fill these gaps. After distinguishing between strategic and analytic uncertainty, it demonstrates both formally and empirically that (1) analytic uncertainty can undermine international cooperation, and (2) signaling and learning could counter the adverse effects of analytic uncertainty.

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