Judgments of recidivism risk: Conflicts between clinical strategies and base-rate information.
- 1 January 1977
- journal article
- Published by American Psychological Association (APA) in Law and Human Behavior
- Vol. 1 (2) , 191-198
- https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01053438
Abstract
The prediction of recidivism is of growing importance in the criminal justice system, and authorities have recommended the use of statistical prediction devices along with case-specific information. However, research has shown that laypeople and experts have difficulty dealing with statistical information, and tend to ignore it in the presence of case-specific information. A study was conducted in which subjects were given one of three different types of base-rate information about known recidivism rates in a population, and a sample of several case descriptions, and asked to predict recidivism for the sample cases. No use of base-rate information occurred when case-specific information was available. The implications for decisions and training in the criminal justice system are discussed.Keywords
Funding Information
- National Science Foundation (SOC75-18061)
- John W. Payne
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