Whose drinking does the liberalization of alcohol policy increase? Change in alcohol consumption by the initial level in the Finnish panel survey in 1968 and 1969

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Abstract
Aims To study how the annual volume of alcohol consumed changed among population groups in different categories of initial consumption in a situation where per capita consumption strongly increased due to a new alcohol law. Design A post‐hoc quasi‐experiment with a two‐wave panel study. The regression to the mean effect was accounted for by using reference data from two auxiliary panel studies. Setting Finland in 1968 and 1969, when per capita consumption increased by 46% in a year. Reference data come from Norway in 1975 and 1976, and the United States in 1993 and 1994. Participants General population sample of 1720 (1292 men) aged 15–69 (response rate 91.4%). Reference data General population surveys in a Norwegian town (n = 254) and in the United States (n = 658). Measurements Annual volume of alcohol consumed. Findings In Finland, the greatest change in observed consumption levels occurred among those with moderate consumption levels, but the same phenomenon was observed in the reference data. A comparison between the Finnish and the reference data indicated that in Finland consumption increased at all levels, and the higher the initial consumption level, the greater the increase. Conclusions A best estimate for the differential impact of future increases in alcohol consumption is that moderate and particularly heavy drinkers will be affected to a greater extent than will light drinkers or abstainers.