Structural determinants of childlessness: A nonrecursive analysis of 1970 U.S. rates

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Abstract
This study tests two theories accounting for observed relationships between U.S. rates of childlessness and sociodemographic characteristics using data on Black and white women aged 30–44 from the 1970 U.S. census. Traditional theory sees the observed correlations as spuriously caused by involuntary sterility, while voluntaristic theory interprets the associations as evidence of influences on the decisions of fecund couples to remain childless. We examine the two positions by estimating and then comparing the aggregate causal structures of childless rates and cumulative fertility rates of women with proven fecundity. The traditional approach expects little if any relationship, while the voluntaristic approach predicts high similarity between the two estimated structures. Results support the voluntaristic position and thus offer indirect substantiation of the voluntaristic theory of areal variation in childless rates.