On the sensitivity of predictions of maritime cyclogenesis to convective precipitation and sea temperature

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Abstract
The influences of surface fluxes and convective precipitation are investigated for two 36‐h periods of cyclogenesis over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Three methods are tested of specifying the fraction of moisture supply that produces convective precipitation in a modified form of Kuo's (1974) parametrization scheme using an 8‐level primitive equations model. When convection is included, precipitation amounts are greater and the cyclone deepening is better predicted than when convection is not included. Predicted cyclogenesis is very sensitive to sea temperature. As the low moves over warmer water, the effect of sensible heating is to increase the moisture convergence in the atmospheric boundary layer. This increases the precipitation rates and accelerates deepening. It is concluded that the CISK mechanism plays an important role in extratropical cyclogenesis.