Healthy response to climate change

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Abstract
Contraction and convergence Contraction and convergence is a carbon cap and trade policy designed to stabilise and then reduce carbon dioxide emissions, which are responsible for 70% of greenhouse gases. Industrial methane emissions, responsible for much of the rest, will reduce alongside carbon dioxide. Frugal fossil fuel users will be able to sell entitlements to profligate users through international trading of this capped amount of carbon dioxide. View larger version: In this window In a new window Carbon monoxide plumes show pollution from eastern Asia extending eastward over the Pacific Ocean. Satellite data were collected early in 2003; no data were collected in grey areas because of cloud cover or gaps between viewing swaths Credit: NCR/MOPPITT/NASA The first step in implementing this policy is to set a global carbon budget and allocate an entitlement of this carbon to each region, country, or person. The initial carbon allocation is then reduced (the carbon budget is contracted) at an agreed pace and time until the amount of allocated carbon equals the globe's carrying capacity, about 12 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. Given the present global population, this amounts to 2 tonnes/person/year, five times less than the present UK average emission. The effect of contraction is to stabilise and then reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. The stabilisation level is negotiable, but the consensus is that an atmospheric level of carbon dioxide of 450 ppm, which will result in a temperature increase of around 2°C, is a tipping point. Carbon budgets should be set with this in mind.

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