Integrated control of apple pests in New Zealand 10. Population dynamics of codling moth in Nelson

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Abstract
Sampling methods are described for estimating the population density, mortality, and natality of a univoltine population of codling moth attacking mature apple trees (cv. ‘Delicious’) at Nelson, New Zealand. These methods were used to construct life tables for the species over eight generations (1967–68 to 1974–75) on trees variously sprayed and not sprayed with ryania in an integrated control programme. Bait traps provided a sensitive measure of seasonal adult population density. Analysis of the life tables shows that migration of adults was the main key factor and that overwintering larval mortality (particularly that due to bird predation), fecundity, and ryania also made a major contribution to variation in generation mortality. In the absence of ryania the resident population usually increased between generations, whereas it usually decreased when ryania sprays were applied. The density dependence of overwintering larval mortality was due to bird predation, and the inverse density dependence of larval mortality from ryania was due to changes in the site of fruit entry with larval population density. Fecundity was density independent, and inconclusive evidence was obtained on the density dependence of migration. The wide variation in fecundity is attributed primarily to weather conditions. The impact on control strategy of the above key factors, density dependence, and total natural mortality is discussed. Ryania is found to be uneconomic, whereas the granulosis virus of codling moth and male removal with pheromone traps show promise as future control methods. The need to eliminate reservoirs of codling moth close to orchards under integrated pest control is emphasised. Regulation of codling moth populations at Nelson on neglected, unsprayed trees appears to result from intraspecific competition for fruits and cocooning sites, and weakly density-dependent mortality of mature larvae when seeking cocooning sites and while overwintering in their cocoons. Variation in fecundity also cohtributes to fluctuations in abundance of the species. In contrast, at low density in an integrated control programme no intraspecific competition was evident; migration, winter mortality, and fecundity were the main determinants of abundance. This illustrates the need to study pest populations at densities similar to those tolerable commercially.