Ecoclimatic Assessment of Potential Establishment of Exotic Pests

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Abstract
A computer-based system for matching climates in ecology (CLIMEX) may assist in answering questions concerning the likelihood of establishment of exotic pests in any locality. CLIMEX compares the relative potential for growth and persistence of poi-kilotherms at different times and places by providing temperature and moisture parameters that describe the response of the organism to its environment. Although CLIMEX has broad application and much potential in entomology, it is particularly useful for summarizing current knowledge and giving insight when detailed biological or climatological information is scarce. Such lack of information may confront the scientist dealing with insect quarantine problems. The use of CLIMEX to assist with the assessment of potential establishment and spread of two exotic pests, Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), and Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say), in New Zealand is demonstrated. Information available in the literature was used to determine CLIMEX parameters for each insect. To refine initial parameters, selected overseas locations where each insect is found were examined for correspondence of CLIMEX output with favorable periods of population development and probable relative abundance. Established parameters were then used to examine 286 meteorological sites throughout New Zealand. Potential favorable areas of population establishment are identified.

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