Quasi‐periodic meteorological series and second‐order autoregressive processes

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Abstract
Quasi‐periodic behaviour in meteorological or climatological series is a widespread phenomenon; various attempts have been made to explain such behaviour in physical terms, often invoking external influences in the explanations. While it is not disputed that external influences or feedback mechanisms may have a part to play, it is argued in the present note that a substantial part of quasi‐cyclic behaviour can often be explained by a simpler mechanism, namely second‐order dependence of a series on its own past. The plausibility of second‐order dependence is discussed, and the way in which such dependence leads to quasi‐periodic behaviour is described. Data on sunspots. Baltic ice area and a zonal circulation index are used to illustrate these ideas.

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