Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm
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Open Access
- 13 December 2012
- journal article
- Published by Springer Nature in BMC Medicine
- Vol. 10 (1) , 165
- https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7015-10-165
Abstract
Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches.Keywords
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