Capability of a national epidemiological survey to predict General Dental Service treatment

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Abstract
The relationship between the dental status of tooth surfaces, as recorded during the 1978 Adult Dental Health Survey [in Scotland, UK], and the treatment dental attenders subsequently received, were examined. A year after the survey, almost twice as many surfaces had been filled as were predicted on the basis of the survey. After 3 yr, this had risen to a 3.5-fold difference. Despite this, 59% of the restorative need identified by the survey criteria remained unmet by the end of the 1st yr; 46% was unmet by the end of the 3rd yr. A surface that received a filling for the 1st time was 3 times more likely to have been identified as in need of filling during the survey than a surface which was refilled. These findings cast doubt upon the usefulness of the epidemiological survey as a tool for predicting restorative treatment, and show that maintenance of previous fillings was particularly poorly forecast by the survey data.