Abstract
The problem of estimating a simplex of weights with a direct probabilistic interpretation for combining a set of estimators, either forecasts or expert opinions on an uncertain quantity, is approached via the outperformance construct. Thus, each weight represents the probability that its estimator will perform best. These outperformance probability weights are derived from a generalization of the beta distribution, i.e. the Matrix Beta. A simplified procedure for estimating the outperformance probability weights from this distribution is presented.

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