Extramural Cross–Validation of the Mayo Primary Biliary Cirrhosis Survival Model Establishes Its Generalizability

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Abstract
The generalizability of the Mayo model for predicting survival in individual primary biliary cirrhosis patients without liver transplantation was tested and confirmed. The model was applied to a data base of patients from the New England Medical Center Hospitals (n = 141) and the Scott and White Clinic (n = 35) and found to predict their survival accurately. It was also shown to be accurate for Mayo primary biliary cirrhosis patients with very advanced disease (n = 30), those with less than a 33% chance of surviving 12 months. The analyses confirmed that the addition of histologic stage did not significantly improve the predictive power of the model (p > 0.10). We suggest that the Mayo model is a practical tool for clinical management and decision making.